Will AI Increase or Decrease Conspiracy Theory Beliefs?
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Key points
Several studies have demonstrated that AI chatbots can be trained to decrease conspiracy theory belief.
However, other research has shown that AI chatbots can increase belief in conspiracy theories.
The effects of LLMs on conspiracy beliefs matters less than the intentions of the humans who train them.
These days, there’s an argument that AI chatbots are going to lead us towards a kind of healthy consensus of belief, liberating the world from our current era of belief polarization and extremity that was fueled by social media.1
As I’ve said before, I don’t share the optimism that AI will restore our sense of common reality. On the contrary, I’m much more concerned about the exploitation of AI as a tool of propaganda to manipulate public opinion on a massive scale.
AI Chatbots Can Be Trained to Moderate Conspiracy Theory Belief
That said, recent research on the effects of AI on false beliefs has provided some reason to be optimistic, at least when it comes to conspiracy theories. For example, one study had participants interact with a “street epistemologist chatbot” designed to engage people on their conspiracy beliefs to understand the rationale for their beliefs, rather than trying to debate or dissuade.1 More specifically, the chatbot was prompted to clarify conspiracy theory beliefs, ask how believers came to hold the belief, inquire about belief reservations and contradictory evidence, gently challenge assumptions, and then summarize the conversation.
After interacting with the chatbot, participants experienced a weakening of belief conviction. However, this effect wasn’t observed among those with the most conspiratorially minded (those in what I would call the true believers category). Furthermore, non-AI interventions that encouraged believers to reflect on the reasons for their conspiracy theory beliefs and any reservations they might have about them also dampened belief conviction. This suggests an openness to counter-evidence among “fence-sitters,” whether or not a chatbot is involved.
Another experiment trained a chatbot to interact with self-identified conspiracy believers to “very effectively persuade” the believer by presenting counter-evidence.2 After interactions lasting an average of just eight minutes, belief conviction decreased by about 20 percent. Trust—in both AI and institutions of epistemic authority—was a mediating factor of this modest salutary effect, consistent with my “3M Model,” which argues that mistrust, misinformation, and motivated reasoning are the key underpinnings of false belief.
The lead author of the study, Dr. Thomas Costello from Carnegie Mellon University, maintains an online version of his debunker, “DebunkBot,” for people to try. Curiously, subsequent research by his team found that the chatbot’s ability to moderate conspiracy theory belief persists whether or not participants are aware that they’re interacting with an AI (belief conviction decreases even when they think they’re interacting with a human).3 As with the other study using a “street epistemology chatbot,” it doesn’t therefore appear that A
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Content retrieved from: https://www.psychologytoday.com/ie/blog/psych-unseen/202606/will-ai-increase-or-decrease-conspiracy-theory-belief.
